Forecast, guess, calculation or prophecy? Those of you who have been regular readers of our articles will know that we have predicted a price for uranium of $200/lb since 10th November 2006. As uranium now stands at $138/lb we thought that we would take a look at what other researchers and writers are saying.

Adelaide Now reported this: Macquarie analysts Max Layton and John Moorhead believe the price will average about $US125 a pound this year, but have tipped a peak of about $US150 a pound by year’s end.

Monstersandcritics.com reported the following: Morgan Stanley forecasts the price will stay above $100 a pound through next year, then settling at $40 a pound by 2012.

Grant Stuart, senior manager for consulting at Deloitte & Touche, said he’s ‘extremely bullish about uranium.’ He predicts $140 per pound through next year and then a reduction to between $50 and $55 starting in 2010.

In their month end issue TradeTech reported the results of Wednesdays Mestena uranium auction in Texas. The industries consulting service increased the long-term price of uranium to $95/lb.

The above are big players with highly respected companies but somehow they seem reluctant to stray too far from the current spot price at any given time. Making predictions can land us in deep pooh that’s for sure, however, sticking with the herd never made anyone rich either. In our humble opinion predictions should be good for some time ahead in order that you can invest your money accordingly. To us it doesn’t make sense to keep edging up your forecast as the price moves up as this is following and not leading.

When we came up with $200/lb for uranium it was based as much on what we don’t know as what we do know. If you calculate the demand for uranium based on the current number of reactors in use plus what is planned then yes you will come up with a forecast. However this does not take into consideration all those reactors lurking in the shadows waiting to get a mention. The savvy Governments and utility companies surely would not disclose their intentions to construct many more nuclear power plants until they have secured a reliable supply of uranium. On a gradual basis we will be drip fed this data and the big names on Wall Street will adjust their predications accordingly. We don’t have any inside knowledge either so our prediction could also be wide of the mark, however we suspect that the upside for uranium is far greater than the downside as we suggested in our article on 11th February entitled “Uranium: How high could the price go…. $576?

Anyway as reported by the Financial Post on their trading desk, Peter Grandich said recently that he expects uranium to hit $200/lb – Yes!