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Monday
Aug272007

Olympic Dam Extension: When?

BHP Logo 27aug07


The resources at the Olympic Dam Project owned by BHP Billiton could be 50 per cent greater than previously calculated. The future chief Executive Marius Kloppers said:

"It wouldn't surprise me if it turns out to be the second-largest base-metals ore body ever discovered,"

He also said:

“We remain absolutely confident that Olympic Dam will be the pre-eminent supplier of uranium, underpinning much of the nuclear renaissance that is being experienced as a response to the greenhouse concerns that the world currently is seeking solutions for."

This is a long term project and we have no doubt that the time spent now on the methodology, the planning and even a proto type to ensure a smooth and orderly development, will be time well spent. This entire project could have a 100-year life span, providing uranium to the whole world. This project also has the added kicker of copper, gold and silver but we will put that to one side at the moment.

Olympic Dam Photo 27aug07

Now if you have ever worked closely with an experienced Project Manager ask yourself this question: What was the single most used word he or she ever uttered?…………………WHEN? Would be my answer. The Project Manager has to get beyond:

We are getting there
Progress is fine
We can make up lost time
What schedule?

“The Olympic Dam expansion had slipped a bit”
Quote.

Why didn’t the reporter ask from what date to what date? Investigative reporters where are you? We should not be scared of the big names we should be digging deep in order to ascertain a clearer profile of this project.
Olympic dam photo1 27aug07
The need to get it right, to be more capital efficient as they say, are motherhood statements which apply to any project. We don’t see any specifics here, any detail, which in turn suggests that we are still a fair way from the starting post for this project extension. No doubt that the shadow of Cigar Lake looms large and the concerns of the engineers are being heard and built in to the methodology for this project.

Is this the only project that has slipped a bit? Apparently not, the Ravensthorpe nickel project in Western Australia and the Atlantis oil and gas development in the Gulf of Mexico, both of them over-budget and behind schedule.

The point we want to make is that the schedule is of paramount importance and that time is money. Until BHP Billiton issue a detailed Methodology along with a detailed programme for the project the ‘on-stream’ estimates are nothing more than guestimates and should be treated as such. In a previous article touching on this area of critical factors we said that we wanted to see the following:

A well-written Mission Statement
A concise Method Statement
A detailed Schedule based on CPA and computerised utilising profession project management software not the colourful $50.00 version.
Resources applied to the schedule of labour, plant, equipment, money, etc.
An Expenditure Profile that we can monitor, if you are not spending the money you are not making the progress.


The above requirements also apply to the Olympic Dam Project

We are a long way from this project geographically speaking and therefore ask any of our Australian readers who are close to this project to write to us and illuminate this situation for the benefit of all of us.

Thanks to B for alerting us to this article by The Advertiser, which can also be located on news.com.au.

Friday
Aug242007

Ur-Energy Incorporated: BUY

URE Logo
The uranium sector has suffered a serious hammering during the global market sell off; however, many of the uranium stocks are now on the road to recovery.

We have just completed a review of the charts for many uranium mining stocks and the patterns although not identical are fairly similar. The story is one of a downtrend being formed by a stock and then the sell off acting as a turbo charger in accelerating this sector into massively oversold territory. Gut wrenching indeed but it is not a loss until you hit the sell button, which we have not done. To see this recovery commence gives us a modicum of comfort.

We have chosen one stock to buy today but there are many others that are in same boat, so if you have a favourite uranium stock or stocks now would be a good time to add a few more to your portfolio. However expect volatility and look beyond the next few months for significantly higher prices.

The stock that we are going to purchase today is Ur-Energy Corporation (URE)

Ur-Energy Chart:


Ur Energy Chart 24 August 07


From the chart above we can see that the recovery has commenced as bargain hunters accumulate this stock. The technical indicators, RSI, MACD and the Stockastics have all moved into positive territory.

The bottom fishing will continue and you will see different individual uranium stocks putting on large one day gains as stock pickers give their approval to go back into the water for their particular favourite. This has already started with URE and the announcement yesterday that the company had a strong cash position, C$88.7 million, had a positive effect with the stock jumping 5.96%.

Bill Boberg, President and Chief Executive Officer, said yesterday,

"The basic fundamentals of the uranium market and of Ur-Energy remain unchanged. Medium and long-term uranium supply continues to be a problem. Given Ur-Energy's production schedule, low capital requirements, projected low cost of production and first-class technical team as well as a secure treasury sufficient to take us well into production, Ur-Energy is uniquely well-positioned in today's market.

Interesting to note this some analyst’s comments yesterday sent to us by one of our readers:

In an analysis published Thursday, Canada's Haywood Securities predicted that, by year-end, the spot market for uranium could regain some of the ground it has lost since the metal reached a high of $136 in mid-June.

The BBC also a had a news item that appeared to have gone unnoticed: The West African state of Guinea is the latest country in Africa to announce that it is seeking nuclear power. This is another country that we can add to the list of future consumers of uranium. Due to the shortage of electricity these students are studying in a car park.

African Students 24 aug 07

Today we purchased URE for $3.05.

Ur-Energy Incorporated trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol URE.

Have a good one and many thanks indeed for all the alerts that you send us.
Wednesday
Aug222007

Uranium: The Pendulum Swings!

Uranium Chart 22 August 2007

The spot price for the world’s future energy material, uranium, has fallen to around $90/lb according to the Ux Consulting price indicator. Over the road we have $105/lb from TradeTech and a taking a quick look at the NYMEX Futures market we have December 2007 at $74/lb and December 2008 at $85/lb.

The pendulum first went one way with a swing from around $7/lb to a high of about $138/lb and now with the momentum all spent it is falling back. Will it come to rest at its median price; no, momentum will take it past that price as it swings into the too cheap zone.

As we have said before all eyes are on the auction results, which have just been held. This is microanalysis at its worst in our humble opinion, when one auction determines your investment strategy. The number to watch is the Long-term price indicator; think of it as moving average as applied to a stock. This figure we understand has not changed from $95/lb. Remember that summer is traditionally slow and this is a very thin market where the oscillations can and will be wild.

The spot price may well swing lower in the short term scaring investors out of this sector. And when it swings back again those same investors will be busting a gut to tell you how they once owned Toddler Uranium Corporation but unluckily they sold out for half the price it is now. Don’t be one of those storytellers.

Focus on the long term supply and demand fundamentals of the situation. The future is clear, it is Nuclear. Almost every day there are reports in the media about the latest country to embrace nuclear power. The demand for electricity is on the up and up, a pendulum that won’t swing back unless you are prepared to make enormous personal sacrifices.
Tuesday
Aug212007

Uranium-stocks.net: Portfolio Update 21 August 2007


The global market sell off took its toll on our portfolio of uranium stocks. It is a thin market so any sort of selling pressure hit home very hard. TradeTech’s spot price remains at $105/lb for U3O8 with deals being non-existent as all eyes are focused upon the recent auction results, which have yet to be made public.

We have took a battering but the loses are paper loses and only become real if we hit the sell button which we have not done. We do suffer from optimism so please bear that in mind.

Uranium Chart:

Uranium Chart 21 August 07

Below we list the uranium stocks that we have an interest in or are watching with the view to making a future investment. We are also looking for the occasional trading opportunity as we are small enough and should be nimble enough to move in and out of a particular stock quickly. This is difficult for the big players who own big positions in their favourite uranium stocks as the thin liquidity of some stocks does not allow them to sell a large position at the push of a button. But that is no excuse for us, so going forward we will suggest from time to time one or two short term trading moves.

Cameco Corporation – Watch
Cameco was trading at $55.09 on TSE, but didn’t escape the sell off and is now trading at $39.25, problems continue so its not for us at the moment.

RPT Uranium Corp – Watch.
We bought RPT on the 19th February 2007 for $0.42 and sold it for $0.62 on the 13th June 2007 for a profit of 47.6% in 4 months. We still like this stock and so bought it back at around 50 cents, although RPT has dropped since then, we have been able to get it at a considerable discount and selling at 62 cents was a good move in hindsight. This is a small company with a market capitalisation of $24 million, currently trading at $0.34.

Uranium Participation Limited – Hold
U is currently trading at $9.98 Canadian and is down 16% since we bought at $11.97 on 21 November 2006. We will continue to hold, as it offers direct exposure to uranium without the risks inherent in mining. This stock is at a discount at the moment compared with its NAV.

Strateco Resources Inc – Watch
RSC is currently trading at $1.65 having suffered a severe sell off. This presented a cheaper entry level that we had hoped for and so we bought a small position at $2.30. The stock appears to be forming a bottom, keep an eye.

Fronteer Developments Group – Buy
Fronteer is currently trading at US$8.40. Our original purchase was made on the 15 July 2006 at around the $4.70 level so that is showing a gain of 78%. We are still quietly confident that it can double in value in 12 months or less. We may transfer FRG to our gold portfolio as it is more of a gold play now than a uranium play.

Crosshair Exploration and Mining Corporation– Neutral.
Having taken a small profit we continue to watch CXX. The stock is trading at $1.39 Canadian and we are still neutral at the moment, as it is still heading south. Listing on the AMEX should give this stock more exposure but since hitting a high of $4.0 in December it has been down hill all the way since then. Not for us at the moment. See recent article on CXX.

Laramide Resources Limited – Buy
Having recently been a star performer this stock has now dropped to $5.76. We bought at $5.78 on the 28 July 2006 so we are about even with it at the moment. When we were sitting on a paper profit of around 80% we sold half in order to buy other uranium stocks, as we needed a bigger spread of stocks. That said we still expect LAM to bounce back from these levels.

Energy Metals Corporation – Watch
EMC is now trading at $13.00 down from $17.71 having suffered in the recent sell off. We first wrote about it in September when it was trading around $5.70 but failed to land it then – that’s life.

Eagle Plains Resources – Buy
This stock is mainly featured on our silver website, but it does have some uranium interests. EPL was trading at $0.89 in the last update and is currently trading at $0.79, for a nice gain since we bought it at $0.53. We still hold the belief that EPL will be issuing good news on the results front this year so we will hold on tight to this industries ’Project generator’

Mega Uranium Limited – Buy
We bought MEGA at around $4.0 on 27 July 2006. MGA is now trading at $3.49 for a loss of 12%. MGA has taken a battering during the recent sell off, but the recovery has commenced. They have a very good cash position so we would expect them to be in acquisitive mood and pick up a few bargains before prices rise. Please see our recent post on Mega Uranium.

Rodinia Minerals Inc. – Watch
RM was $0.80 when we first wrote about it on 15 August 2006 and is currently trading at $0.60 so a fairly volatile stock. The volume is still tiny as you might expect from a company with a market capitalisation of $13.6 million.

Santoy Resources Limited – Sold, but now on Watch List
Santoy was doing very well up from $0.81 that we paid on 27 December 2006 to trade at $1.53 at the time of the last update. However having decided to sell three of its projects to Mega for 400,000 common shares in Mega we decided to sell. We sold on 23 April 2007 at $1.39 for a profit of 70% in 4 months. Santoy now trades at $0.54 having suffered a severe decline. We will need to review this one as this would appear to be a cheap re-entry point.

Khan Resources Ltd - Buy
We bought Khan on the 5th March at $3.63 and it is now trading at $1.33 for a loss of 63%. Khan got off to a great start but has also suffered in the sell off. Just to make matters worse the Mongolian government rejected one of their mining lisceness. So, in anticipation of Khans management team finding a resolution to this problem we decided to buy again. (See Khan Resources: A speculative buy) This is a risky strategy but if they can resolve this problem then the stock could recover very quickly indeed.

Aurora Energy Resources
- Buy
We bought Aurora on the 5th March 2007 at $14.17 and it is now trading at $11.18 for a loss of 21% as we write, another victim of the market shake out. Having rubbed noses with $20 it now looks to be severely oversold.

Strathmore Mineral Corporation - Buy
We bought STM on the 14th April 2007 at $4.96 and it is currently trading at $2.28 for a loss of 54% as we write. We think the stock will do better when they spin off the non-core assets into Fission Energy.

Ur-Energy - Buy
We bought Ur-Energy on the 23rd April 2007 at $4.75 and it is presently trading at $2.78 for a loss of 41% as we write. Pretty much the same story here as for the the other uranium stocks.

UraMin Incorporated – Subject to a take over bid by AREVA
We bought UraMin on the 15th May 2007 at $6.72 and sold it for $8.36 on the 22nd June 2007 for a gain of 24.4% in 6 weeks.

Uranium:
We are sticking with our target prediction of $200.00 per pound for uranium despite the recent drop in price. Don’t be put off if we haven’t mentioned your favourite stock we do get it wrong now and again as evidenced reading our updates we are having to take it on the chin at the moment.

Please do get involved and add your comments to any of our articles whether you agree with us or not as this will add balance to what we say and be of benefit to everyone. No, you can’t use naughty words.

Please accept our apologies if you were unfortunate enough to visit the site when unwanted Spam is present we have now installed Spam protection so it will become less and less every day.
Please feel free if you haven’t joined to sign up to the forum and get involved with some of the debates. If there is a subject or uranium stock that you want to discuss then please start a new thread and we will follow with our comments.

Many thanks to all of you who have signed up for our Uranium Stocks Newsletter; we hope that you are enjoying it. We now have 3218 subscribers up from 2669 subscribers last month, which include a number of stockbrokers, banks and financial institutions, uranium company CEO’s, etc.

We have been inundated with requests for individual advice, which we are not allowed to give by law so please accept our apologies for not piling in to help you. There have also received a number of requests to cover individual uranium stocks or unique geographical areas, which we will try and get to in the weeks ahead.

Have a better week.
Monday
Aug202007

Mega Uranium Limited: Cash Position

Today Mega Uranium issued a statement regarding its current position, which reads as follows:

Mega Uranium Ltd. ("Mega") (TSX: "MGA") confirmed today that its cash resources of over $120 million are invested in corporate bonds, banker’s acceptance notes and guaranteed investment certificates (GIC's) and are not exposed to repayment risks associated with the asset-backed commercial paper market.

Considering the current concern over credit and how it affects various companies this is a good move by the Mega’s management team. They have spotted a possible problem and issued this statement before investors become really bothered by it.

As we write Mega is trading 13% up so far today.
Saturday
Aug182007

Uranium Stocks: A Gut-wrenching Week!

This week was the worst week we have seen for uranium stocks with many stocks losing up to 50% of their value in a blink of an eye. The selling on Wednesday and Thursday looked like sheer panic to us. Previously we had written about capitulation thinking that we were there or thereabouts but the carnage continued to make for a gut-wrenching week.

The credit crunch in the housing sector put investors on red alert as the lenders struggled for breathing space. The Federal Reserve duly responded with massive injections of capital followed by a rate reduction. For the moment we can only imagine that the Fed will continue along the lines of injecting capital where and when necessary to keep the financial system afloat.

Friday brought much relief to the markets with the DJIA closing up 233 points and uranium stocks bouncing back to give us some respite from the carnage. Some stocks gained as much 20% on the day while others failed to get off the ground. Is this a dead cat bounce you ask? We don’t know. However we do believe that the worst is now behind us and the downside is now limited. That does not mean to say that higher prices will return as of right now.

The volatility will no doubt continue but we do expect to see some recovery mixed with side ways consolidation and we will look to take advantage of these prices while stocks last!

Tough it out is the order of the day.
Friday
Aug172007

Khan Resources: A Speculative BUY



Khan Resources has plunged today on a news release about their Mongolia property.

However we are treating this as an opportunity to purchase more shares and perhaps make a short term trading profit on Khan.

We have just bought at $1.70 per share, please stay tuned for updates. Khan is down 30-40% today on this news so this is not for the faint hearted. Nonetheless we are flashing an additional BUY on Khan as of now to take advantage of this pullback.

The press release is below:

Khan Receives Notice Regarding Special Exploration License

Khan Resources Inc. (TSX:KRI) announces that it has received a notice from the Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia (the "Minerals Authority") advising that the Minerals Authority has determined that the decision to issue Khan's special exploration license 9282X in respect of the property referred to as the Additional Dornod Property is considered invalid. The company understands that a number of other uranium exploration licenses have been similarly declared invalid. Khan is working closely with its counsel to assess the implications of the notice from the Minerals Authority and the company's legal rights. The company intends to vigorously oppose this determination.

This determination does not affect the existing mining license in respect of the property referred to as the Main Dornod Property. Khan indirectly holds a 58% interest in the Main Dornod Property.
Friday
Aug172007

Uranium Stocks Show Signs Of Life

Uranium Stocks Show Signs Of Life

At the market opening, uranium stocks appear to finally be showing some signs of life.

We have sustained heavy losses in this correction, watching our uranium shares tumble further down everyday. Today looks different as uranium stocks are up anything up from 6% to 20% so far today!

Take a look at this list of various uranium stocks:


FRG 8.94 +0.69 (8.36%)
U 9.82 +0.47 (5.03%)
LAM 5.15 +0.60 (13.19%)
MGA 3.03 +0.35 (13.06%)
URE 2.72 +0.16 (6.25%)
BAY 0.72 +0.12 (20.00%)
SAN 0.48 +0.04 (9.09%)
RPT 0.30 +0.02 (7.14%)
CCO 38.70 +0.70 (1.84%)
CXX 1.37 +0.14 (11.38%)
RM 0.66 +0.04 (6.45%)
STM 2.25 +0.30 (15.38%)
DIT 0.50 +0.05 (11.11%)
EPL 0.75 +0.05 (7.14%)
AXU 12.52 +1.47 (13.30%)
PNP 4.45 +0.50 (12.66%)
RSC 1.80 +0.16 (9.76%)
URZ 3.00 +0.31 (11.52%)
UEX 4.62 +0.45 (10.79%)
FIU 7.19 +0.14 (1.99%)

As you can see, today the market appears to all all green in the uranium sector. The general market is also doing well, with DOW up 1.5% at the moment and this comes after the Fed lowered interest rates just hours ago.

We are fully aware that “one swallow does not make a summer” but it is still good to see uranium stocks finally posting some decent gains. This does not mean the correction is over, we may still have further to go, but this bounce back indicates that perhaps further downside is limited and we may be nearing a bottom soon.

Today's gains may just be a flash in the pan, but the inevertable switch to nuclear power is not, therefore the uranium bull market is not either. We continue to hold our uranium stocks and we stand by our view that this correction was a great opportunity to purchase more uranium stocks. Keep updated on this uranium bull market by subscribing to The Uranium Stocks Newsletter.
Thursday
Aug162007

Uranium: To Catch a Falling Knife!

The much watched spot price for uranium is now $105/lb, having dropped from $138/lb for a loss of 31% in a matter of weeks. The un-correctable is now experiencing a correction.

Uranium Chart 16 August 2007

The news flow is virtually non-existent in terms of uranium traded so all eyes are focused on the one and only auction planned for the 17th August. This event is actually not that important when considering the bigger picture, however, with the markets in general going through an upheaval, the search for some reassurance intensifies. The result may come as a relief to some investors or if the price is significantly lower, an added pressure. As you know we own the metal through a fund so it does have a direct effect on our portfolio. Our strategy remains unchanged and will continue to hold and sit this one out. The supply/demand fundamentals if anything are improving on a daily basis with the like of South Africa turning towards the nuclear industry in order to supplement its future energy needs.

The ramifications for uranium stocks are tied to the above whether we like or not, so we must expect erratic swings either way based on auction results, rumours, extrapolations by whoever is available for comment and the theme from last nights business programme. These are now choppy waters so expect the un-expected, hold on tight and get through it.

Our strategy is to hold on to the uranium stocks that we have accumulated despite the inclement weather so as a small group of investors our efforts must be concentrated on how we can make the best of this buying opportunity. Most of our cash is already in the market, however, as a group we remain confident that this course of action is the right one to take to the point that our group is generating more cash to be invested in the precious metals sector, which we consider to be uranium, gold and silver.

A few days ago we mentioned capitulation as the uranium stocks were taking a hammering and some investors headed for the exit. Since that article the uranium sector has been battered further with a number of large drops occurring yesterday. To us it does appear to be a case of the baby being thrown out with the bath water, but out they go as investors scramble to stop the pain and also to raise the cash to finance other calls on their portfolio. We are fortunate enough not to have other calls on our capital so hopefully we will not be distracted from the task of bottom fishing.

Members of our team ask why we are not jumping on these opportunities today; well it’s a little like trying to catch a falling knife. Let it fall, hit the deck and then pick it up. True we may miss some of the rebound but we would feel more comfortable with a recognisable reverse in this down trend before moving.

But move we will.
Wednesday
Aug152007

South Africa to Join Nuclear Revolution

SA Flag 15 August 07
The government of South Africa yesterday launched its draft policy on nuclear energy, upon which it hopes to create a new nuclear power generation industry.

The Department of Mineral and Energy has plans to promote the recycling of spent nuclear fuel along with plans to rebuild South Africa’s uranium enrichment capacity, which was dismantled some time ago. This represents a turn around in political thinking for South Africa but it makes sense as South Africa is rich in uranium and the same fundamental reasons for developing nuclear power apply to them as much as they do to other countries that are coming to the same conclusion.

This is a draft document but has the approval of the cabinet and is a logical development based on President Thabo Mbeki’s commitment in his ‘State of the Nation’ address to accelerate work that would clear the path for South Africa to increase its reliance on nuclear and renewable energy.

President Thabo Mbeki
President Thabo Mbeki

To quote the Department’s Chief Director, Tseliso Maqubela, who said, “There is no way we can have a primary energy source such as uranium which we don’t use fully,”

The intention is to increase South Africa’s power supply from nuclear fuel to 15% by 2025 to 2030, which would be more than double the current supply of around 6%. At the moment coal fuels 88% of power supply and the aim is to reduce their dependence on coal to around 70%.

For those interested in mining Tseliso Maqubela has said that the government are prepared to look at providing incentives, which would encourage mining, and be of a benefit locally.

Sounds to us like another convert to the nuclear cause.