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« Ur-Energy Inc: Up 7.05% yesterday | Main | Khan Resources Inc: An upside breakout! »

Uranium Sealed Bids Auctions: No Deal!

Auctions 25jun07
A quote from the Nuclear Market Review reported in this week’s issue:

“Two sellers that were evaluating bids in response to their auctions have concluded their evaluations and have decided not to sell at this time. “Both sellers preferred to make delivery in June while most bidders were seeking delivery for several months out.”

This statement is interesting and infuriating at the same time. Did the sellers back off because they wanted a June delivery as stated or did the bid price not meet their expectations? What were their expectations; $140? $150? $160? It brings into the spotlight the difference between ‘Stated Aims’ and ‘Real Aims’ the stated aim is a delivery issue and the real aim could be anything, that we the investors are not privy to, but we tend to think that it is a price issue. Opinions on a post card please! We have no wish to discredit the sellers in any way but the news has been slow to come out and on a ‘gut feel only’ basis it just does not feel right.

It is difficult to evaluate this almost non-event of a situation so we can only wait for the next auction to come along and give us an indication as to the spot price of uranium. The futures market is there as a guide but it is early days for the NYMEX, no doubt it will develop over time and become a useful indicator. According to Stock interview the current prices are June $136/lb, July $140/lb and December 2007 $154/lb.

The decision not to sell however is indicative of the power residing in the hands of the sellers and that they are able to negotiate from a position of strength being able to reject offers in the hope of receiving higher offers at a later date. This story will continue to roll with news, rumours, head fakes, et al, however we are still of the opinion that the demand for nuclear fuel has not disappeared and uranium will hit our long held prediction of $200/lb.

Have a good one.

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Reader Comments (3)

All very strange stuff - looking at U Participation, which could be viewed as an ETF, it seems to be trading way under NAV. Last NAV for 31 st May was C$ 14.78 with a U308 price of $125. Using simplle maths and forgetting UFo6, the current share price of C$ 14.15 implies a U308 price of $ 120 or alternatively a U308 price of $138 implies a NAV of C$ 16.30. Something wrong somewhere methinks....

June 26, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterbob

U Participation up $0.36 so far today so just maybe others can see the value!

June 27, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterUranium Stocks

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